Why Russia refuses to give up

By the time this article is being written, the Ukraine war effort has been ongoing for almost two and a half years. Many people claim to understand the reasons behind this conflict without recognizing that such actions are deeply rooted in Russian politics. Today, we will delve into Russian history and mythos to uncover the intentions behind the invasion.

New Country, Same Old Empire

Since Ivan the Terrible, the first great Tsar of Russia, the country has followed a pattern in international relations often described as the best defensive tactic: to attack first. By gradually expanding into Eastern Europe, Mongolia, Siberia, parts of China, and the volatile North Caucasus, the pre-revolutionary Russian Empire grew into a vast domain. Even Finland was once part of this expansive empire.

This trajectory took a significant turn during the Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905), when Russia suffered a major defeat against a nation that had only recently emerged from the Edo period. This defeat marked the beginning of the end for the Russian Empire, which was often described as too large to govern effectively. The identity politics employed by the empire failed to assimilate the diverse populations, who did not fit into the orthodox, autocratic, and nationalistic vision promoted by Nicholas I. Although ethnic identities were generally respected to prevent rebellion, the empire struggled to create a unified Russian identity.

Lenin’s Short-Lived Idealism

Communism is often portrayed as a counterweight to imperialism, advocating for the humble masses to seize power and govern inclusively. Lenin echoed these sentiments, and in 1917, he and Stalin signed the Declaration of the Rights of the Peoples of Russia. This document proclaimed the equality and sovereignty of various ethnic groups and their right to self-determination, including secession. Lenin’s goal was to foster belief in communist democracy and maintain unity within the USSR.

However, following the civil war, the state began to disintegrate, and new nations emerged in the southern Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia). The Russian army soon re-invaded these areas, reincorporating them into the USSR. Lenin attempted to respect national identities by creating a federal state, but this idealism was short-lived.

The USSR: A Project Against Itself?

Stalin’s rule starkly contrasted with Lenin’s ideals. Despite proclaiming equality and self-determination, Stalin’s USSR functioned more like an empire. Identity politics were so prominent that, after 1932, Soviet citizens were required to carry internal passports specifying their class and nationality. Stalin admired Russians as the “most excellent nation” within the USSR, promoting Russian dominance in a supposed union of equals.

After World War II, non-Russian nationalisms within the USSR turned against Russian control. The “Forest Brothers” guerrilla war in the Baltic States (1944-1956) and Stepan Bandera’s far-right nationalist movement in Ukraine are examples of resistance against Soviet dominance.

The Semi-Definitive Fall of the Russian Empire

Mikhail Gorbachev, the last Soviet leader, aimed to reform and strengthen communism through Perestroika and Glasnost. With the fall of Berlin’s wall, Gorbachev gave the capacity to each satellite country to decide their own economic destiny, with the Russian recommendation to follow the Perestroika hoping that this Russian show of goodwill would ultimately reinforce the USSR. They were wrong: these policies backfired, exposing systemic abuses and fostering widespread discontent. Demonstrations against the USSR grew, and Gorbachev’s reluctance to use force allowed independence movements to gain momentum.

In 1990, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania “illegally” declared independence, nearly sparking conflict with Russia. Armenia and Azerbaijan’s independence declarations reignited the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In 1991, Georgia’s referendum saw 99% of the population vote to leave the USSR.

However, while there was much discontent, there wasn’t a widespread desire across the republics to dismantle the Soviet Union, as the first referendum in Soviet history, on 17 March 1991, would show. The question was the following: do you consider it necessary to preserve the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics as a renewed federation of equal sovereign republics, in which the rights and freedoms of a person of any nationality will be fully guaranteed? 77.85% of the voting population voted in favor of reforming the USSR, though six of the fifteen republics boycotted the vote.

Seeing the turn of events, there was even an attempt of a coup d’etat by the hardliners of the Party who opposed Gorbachev’s determination to give freedom to the different countries to determine whether they wanted to stay in or out of the Union. Ultimately, because of the large accumulation of political and economic errors made, the project that once sought out to reform and strengthen the Union was the cause of its definitive downfall. Thus, the presidents of Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia signed the Belavezha Accords, officially dissolving the USSR on December 31, 1991.

Putin’s Neo-Russian Empire

Putin regards the fall of the USSR as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. As a revisionist, he views Gorbachev as a traitor and aims to restore Russia’s global influence. This explains Russia’s prominent role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the 2008 intervention in Georgia, its control over the Caucasus, influence in Western Europe, and the invasions of Ukraine in the past decade.

Putin is often portrayed as a religious savior, attempting to reconcile Russia’s imperial and Soviet legacies. He is frequently compared to Alexander Nevsky, a saint and warrior who defended Russia against foreign invaders. While Russia’s image is tarnished in the West, it enjoys substantial support in the global south: according to a study from Cambridge university, 66% of the global population views Russia favorably.

This should be taken into account when making decisions and before judging Russia as weak. Russia possesses the influence, economic strength, and popularity to re-emerge as a superpower. With Putin’s ambition to restore Russia’s former glory, it is crucial to counter this neo-imperialist threat with determination and unity.