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Photo: Kyoko Escamilla (Flickr); Licence: CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

What happens next is anyone’s guess, frankly, but one thing that has become increasingly clear in the 48 hours or so since the UK General Election is that Prime Minister Theresa May will be very lucky to still be in that job in six months’ time.

By losing 12 seats from her benches, the Conservative party leader’s big gamble has backfired spectacularly.

Right now, she remains PM, but she will be relying on the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party, and their toxic brand of social conservatism to govern and members of her own party have already expressed misgivings.

Published in Sixth Sense
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Photo Courtesy of Stronger in Manchester 

Our former editor Chris Ruff gives an enriching insight into the experience of those volunteering for Britain Stronger In Europe. 

At my first campaign stop, decent-length conversations were at a premium. Somewhat awkwardly positioned outside Manchester Victoria train station, with staff having kicked us out, we were at the mercy of the biting winds characteristic of that part of the world. Yes, even in May.

Published in Sixth Sense
Friday, 25 January 2013 08:28

New Immigration Flows, Old Stereotypes

The final transitional immigration controls on Romania and Bulgaria are set to expire in January 2014, seven years after these new Eastern Europeans became citizens of the European Union. In the United Kingdom, parallels are already being drawn with the 2004 “wave” of immigration, when Poland and the other A8 countries gained the rights to travel and work throughout the EU. However, the main “pull” factors of immigration, which include employment opportunities, relative gross national interest per capita (GNI per capita) and comparative opportunities across the EU, all suggest that the immigration flow from Romania and Bulgaria will not only be significantly smaller than 2004 levels, but will also be more diffuse throughout EU member states.

2004 reappraised

A recently released study by Oxford University's Migration Observatory has drawn out the long-term impact of A8 immigration on the UK, placing the “tsunami” effect into a broader context. Estimations made in 2004 predicted 15,000 people per year would move from the new EU member states to the UK. The average annual Long-Term International Migration inflow of EU citizens was, in fact, increased to around 170,000 in the period 2004-2010, in comparison to the 67,000 over the previous six years. As a percentage of EU citizens, the A8 immigrants accounted for around 50 per cent of that movement, meaning that Eastern Europeans made up only one-third of the total migrant inflow into the UK. Nevertheless, the failure to anticipate the impact of lifting these restrictions left a deep mark in the political landscape of the UK.

The negative framing of Eastern European immigration has returned [as] an endless stream of "benefit tourists".

The negative framing of Eastern European immigration has returned in the form of an endless stream of unskilled and unemployed “benefit tourists”. It may be narrow politicking but the image has maintained its potency. The UK Independence Party (UKIP) now displays a countdown clock on their website for when, as The Telegraph has also warned, “Twenty million Bulgarians and Romanians will gain the right to live and work unrestricted in Britain.” Research by the Open Society in Sofia actually suggests that the inflow of Bulgarian immigrants would be “far less significant in volume and it is less likely.... [to] cause labour market disruption” than the A8 access.

Published in The Transnationalist
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